| What
are the objectives of your project -- for the project team and for the
company?
Does your staff have
the needed skills and expertise?
What does your competitive
environment look like?
Choosing the Route
My objectives determine the route I take. When
riding my bicycle I noticed that there are definite advantages to selecting
a familiar route. Without "historical data" or knowledge about past performance,
I have no basis for estimating how long it will take. Putting all my energy
into climbing one hill may leave me without the reserves for the unknown
hill yet to come. Even if I select a familiar route, I still run the risk
of getting a flat tire. The best way to deal with the risk of a flat tire
is to be prepared. I carry a spare inner tube and a pump. When in trouble,
solicit help and assess the cause on return.
What is your confidence
level in your schedule, based on your knowledge of the route, historical
data and possible risks?
Measure and Monitor
Whether I want to improve my performance or just
know how I am doing, I need information about my past performance. Early
last year the battery in my speedometer went dead and I never bothered
to replace it. Did I improve last season? Did I do as well as the year
before? I cannot tell. I found that judging how I feel does not give me
an objective answer as to whether I am going faster or slower than usual.
It just gives me a reading on my current physical condition and whether
I need to make any adjustments. But, if I feel good and my speedometer
tells me that I am going faster than usual, I am ready to set a new personal
record. Monitoring my performance also provides me with information about
my strengths and weaknesses. It tells me what I need to do to get my skills
in better balance.
What is the status of
the project? (Completed tasks against scheduled tasks, actual cost versus
budget)
Do you need to increase
your performance in order to finish as planned?
Lessons Learned
-
Take advantage of knowing the terrain
-
Match your talents to the terrain
-
Know what is exceptional versus average performance
-
Know that you can finish without crashing
-
Pace yourself -- you have to last for the whole distance
Above all pick objectives, choose a route and adjust
as you go, so when you reach your destination you want to do it again.
? |
Preparing
a Realistic Schedule by Analyzing the Risk
As project managers we strive for realistic schedules.
A realistic schedule means a schedule we can commit to and deliver to.
If we don’t have a realistic schedule, we have to look for ways to reduce
the schedule risk.
There are four general techniques for reducing
risk:
Transfer risk
-- (1) Buy a software package rather than build it, or (2) Outsource the
development of a software component.
Avoid risk
-- Choose another technology to develop the software, such as C rather
than Java.
Reduce the risk
-- Provide training to compensate for a lack of skills.
Buy information
-- Spend time and effort to gain further insight.
Using the Risk Based Schedule Analysis (RBSA)
method, you can reduce the risk by adding contingency. You also can gain
further insight into the project risk by analyzing the project schedule.
The RBSA method is used during the project-planning
phase and in conjunction with preparing a project schedule.
RBSA offers the following benefits:
Distributes contingencies across all tasks according
to their risk factor.
-
Prepares charts showing calendar time with high risks,
the risk critical path and a high confidence project schedule.
-
Provides discipline for analyzing the risk inherent
in a proposed schedule.
RBSA is both a method and a tool. The method is based
on the PERT estimation method. The PERT method asks you to provide three
duration estimates for each task:
-
The most likely
-
The pessimistic and
-
The optimistic
Instead of entering three estimates, the RBSA method
asks you to provide a risk factor for each task. The risk factor determines
the variance for the duration estimate; the higher the risk factor the
larger the variance.
In order to provide the risk factor, you can ask
yourself the following two questions:
-
What is the level of confidence I have in the duration
estimate?
-
What risks exist for each task that will have an
adverse impact on the duration of the task once the risk materializes?
|